2016年における円ドルレートの変動原因について─日経記事アプローチ─

Abstract

本稿の目的は，資本市場統合の高度化の下での2016年における円ドルレートの変動原因を明らかにすることである．用いる円ドルレートデータは，午後5時の東京外国為替市場取引終了時点の円ドルレート終値である．日本経済新聞の紙面版と電子版のマーケット欄為替・金融記事は，外国為替取引状況について解説している．円ドルレートの変動原因の解明に際して，本稿における分析方法の特徴はこのような「日経記事」による日々の為替取引解説を使用する点にある．2016年1年間通じての円ドルレートの変動原因についての分析結果は以下のとおりである．予想円ドルレート変動が現実円ドルレート変動へ及ぼした3.81円の円高・ドル安の原因は，「原油安」，「世界景気の減速懸念」，「米国での早期の追加利上げ観測後退」，「中国による南シナ海地対空ミサイル配備の地政学リスク」，「中国人民銀行による人民元の対米ドル基準値を元安方向設定に基づく中国からの資金流出」である．「原油安」も中国経済停滞に基づく原油需要の低下が一因なので，2016年の予想円ドルレート変動の原因は中国絡みのそれが多かったといえる．

The purpose of this paper is to clarify causes of fluctuations in the yen-dollar exchange rate in 2016. The yen-dollar exchange rate data used in this paper are those of closing prices at 5:00 p.m. in the Tokyo Foreign Exchange Markets. The Nihon Keizai Shinbun comments on the daily exchange dealings in the Tokyo Foreign Exchange Markets in both the print edition and the electronic one. The characteristic of the analytical method in this paper is to employ the daily exchange dealings commentary by such "Nikkei article" in order to clarify causes of fluctuations in the yen-dollar exchange rate. The analysis about causes of fluctuations in the yen-dollar exchange rate through the year 2016 as a whole is as follows. Causes of the strong yen/weak dollar of 3.81 yen that the expected yen-dollar exchange rate gave to the actual-yen dollar exchange rate are "lower crude oil prices", "the perspective of the world economy slowdown", "an early additional rise in interest rates observation retreat in the U.S.", "a geopolitics risk of the South China Sea land-to-air missile deployment by China," and "fund outflow from China based on the setting with the standard value of yuan by People's Bank of China for U. S. dollar towards the weaker yuan-dollar exchange rate". Because "lower crude oil prices" is partly due to a drop of the crude oil demand based on the China's economy stagnation, it may be said that there were many causes associated with China as for those of the expected yen-dollar exchange rate in 2016.